French Open – Women’s Preview

The second major of the year is already upon us as qualifying for the French Open gets underway today.  With just a few days to go until main draw play begins this Sunday, all the talk on the men’s side is about Rafael Nadal’s quest for his 5th consecutive French title and whether Federer or Djokovic can catch him.  An intriguing story line, certainly, but that is basically the extent of the discussion.

On the Women’s side, there is much more room for conversation.  After more than a year of the WTA playing a game of #1 ranking tag, we actually enter Roland Garros with a clear favorite for the title in Dinara Safina.  Of course, being the clear favorite, she will certainly lose before the Quarterfinals.  Nonetheless, Safina has been the only top player to avoid looking disastrous.  Playing her best tennis since last fall, Safina ran away with both the Rome and Madrid titles while the rest of her colleagues looked lost, uninspired, and injured.  The question is not whether she has the game, it is whether she can hold it together mentally.  If she can, the title is hers.

The other finalists from Rome and Madrid, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Caroline Wozniacki, can hardly make convincing claims as French Open favorites.  Kuznetsova did beat Safina in Stuttgart, but she long since vacated the relevant conversation as she proved time and again her inability to close out big matches.  Her collapse against Serena in Australia was just another in a long line of almost-wins.  As for Wozniacki, she is still unproven.  She has never reached the Quarterfinal stage of a major before, so we still don’t know how she handles the important moments.  Without a big weapon off the ground, Wozniacki may struggle against a hard hitter who has found her rhythm (See: Safina in Madrid, Lisicki in Charleston, Dokic in Australia, etc.)

And what of the Williams sisters?  Serena is injured and frustrated.  Winless since March, she has spent her time speaking out against the tour for forcing her to play hurt and the ranking system for not rewarding her accomplishments.  She retired against Schiavone in Madrid, and barring a miraculous recovery, Serena looks headed for an early exit.  Venus seemed to be in a much better place than her sister, making the Rome Semifinal and having some of her best clay results in years.  With a favorable draw she can make the second week, but an early round unforced error parade against Kleybanova in Madrid exposed why she might struggle to advance further.

Earlier in the year, it looked as though the Serbian train had lost a little steam.  Now, it has fallen off the tracks, arrived at the wrong station, and caught on fire.  Jankovic hit rock bottom during the Spring hardcourt season, but a title in Marbella seemed to indicate that she may have found her form, but it was not to be.  Recent lackluster losses to Schnyder and Kuznetsova proved that she is still nowhere near her best and would do well just to make her seeding.  When the French Open ends, it will mark one year since Ana Ivanovic fell to pieces.  She’s had flashes of strong play since (Linz 08, Indian Wells 09) but nothing consistent or confidence inspiring.  And the worst part?  She pulled out of Madrid with injury.  This defending champion will be hard pressed to make it even close the winners circle once again.

As for the rest of the top 10, Zvonareva is still injured and unlikely to play.  Victoria Azarenka was the talk of tennis just weeks ago, but she has failed to make a deep run on clay.  She can still upset a few people, but her bandwagon likely won’t get up to speed again until the US hardcourt season.  This leaves Elena Dementieva.  Just a few months ago, she was in Safina’s position, the favorite with momentum who is a solid bet to win her first major.  It didn’t happen for Dementieva, and ever since she has been solid but unconvincing.  In Australia, all of the pressure was on her, and she couldn’t handle Serena in the Semifinals.  Now, no one is talking about her.  Maybe that is exactly what she needs.

That probably completes the list of players with a serious chance to win the title, but there are a host others who could pull off the odd upset here and there.  By beating Dementieva in Madrid, Amelie Mauresmo showed that she can still contend with the best.  A few confidence building wins in the early rounds, and she could put together an inspired run and finally do what she has never done at Roland Garros, just when it seems the least likely.  Last year’s surprise Quarterfinalist Carla Suarez Navarro can only find her game at majors, but she has the potential to repeat.  Last month’s official WTA flavor, Sabine Lisicki, has been hampered with injury and illness since her Charleston win, but she has the game to go far.  I expect we also will see some veterans with kind draws, like Patty Schnyder, Li Na, or Anabel Medina Garrigues, put together a few wins.

This leaves Maria Sharapova.  She’s back and she’s unseeded.  She could surprise some people and make a deep run, and she’s a horrifying first round threat to any seed.  The attention is elsewhere, and she may actually go pretty deep in this draw.  But winning?  Just wait until Wimbledon.